Simple pricing.
Shipping a Steam game in the next 90 days? You get a free forecast on every release. The full launch report is a one-time $299 per launch, not a subscription. You need the forecast in the 90 days before launch, not a tool to cancel after it.
- Calibrated P10–P90 revenue cone
- Boxleiter cross-check from your wishlist count
- Top 3 reasons for the forecast (SHAP feature attributions)
- 5 named comp-set launches with revenue grades
- Out-of-distribution flag when comp similarity is low
- Open methodology + per-genre coverage stats
- Everything in Free, plus:
- Marketing-lever causal estimates with 95% CIs (demos, festivals, price changes, trailers)
- Explicit “not significant” tagging when the CI overlaps zero
- Total Lift Attribution: upload your Steamworks “Wishlists by day” CSV; recover paid-campaign wishlists Steam’s UTM dashboard under-reports by ≈75%
- Comp-set rationale (full retrieval explainer, not just the names)
- Re-runnable through launch. Wishlists grow → cone narrows → you re-run, no extra charge
- Authenticated dashboard with your launch’s history
P10–P90 Performance Guarantee: if your 30-day gross store revenue lands outside our forecasted cone, full refund. Details
$39 buys the wishlist-aware cone and its per-tier realized coverage for a single game — without the what-if levers, the Steamworks-upload sharpened mode or the attribution tool. Run that game’s forecast and the option is on the result page.
Run a forecast to buy the $39 report →If our cone misses, you don’t pay.
If your game’s first 30-day gross store revenue lands outside our forecasted P10–P90 cone, we refund the launch report in full. Gross store revenue is the number the cone forecasts: sales at your launch price before Steam’s cut, taxes and refunds.
The launch report runs the wishlist-aware v2 model: ~82% nominal, 81–86% realized per wishlist tier on n=6,422 held-out launches (validation run 2026-06-11). The held-out validation is open: about 82 of 100 launches land inside their cone. If yours doesn’t, the model was wrong about your launch and you get the money back.
Plus a refund window, whichever favors you: 14-day full refund if you haven’t uploaded Steamworks data yet, 50% within 30 days if you have and your launch hasn’t happened. After that, email [email protected]. Full terms.
- What you send: a screenshot of your Steamworks 30-day gross revenue, plus the link to your report, 30 or more days after launch.
- Where: reply to your receipt, or email [email protected] from the address you bought with.
- What happens: outside [P10, P90] in your report means a full refund. We refund on request and ask one question about how the launch went. No argument.
Questions
Is the free forecast the same model as the paid report?
Yes. The free forecast is the storefront-only cone (better-than-4-in-5 realized coverage). The report adds the wishlist-aware cone, what-if levers with confidence intervals, Total Lift Attribution, and re-runs through launch.
Can I buy the report before my game has a Steam page?
No. You need a published Steam app ID. Run the free forecast first; buy once the page is live.
What if my game is unlike anything in your data?
The forecast page flags low comp-set similarity. Treat that cone as illustrative, not budget-grade; email [email protected] before buying for a second look.