Steam Launch Forecaster

Steam Revenue Forecaster — predict your launch revenue

Enter a Steam app ID to see a free CQR-calibrated revenue cone. Add your wishlist count to preview your tier — the wishlist-aware cone ships in the launch report. Want the full launch report with Total Lift Attribution? $299 single launch report →

Type at least 2 characters. We index ~77K Steam apps from our training corpus.

Enter the wishlist count from your Steam dashboard to see your tier and its validated accuracy — the full wishlist-aware cone is part of the $299 launch report. Price is only needed if your store page doesn’t have one yet.

See it on a game you know

These already-launched titles are backtests — sanity-check the model against outcomes you recognize. Forecasting an unreleased game? Enter its Steam app ID above — that’s what the tool is for. Or see a live pre-launch example: Space Imperia 4X →

Hades
Roguelite · $24
Stardew Valley
Farming sim · $14
R.E.P.O.
Co-op horror · $6
Megabonk
Roguelite · $9
What you’ll see
  • — Calibrated revenue cone (p10/p50/p90, week 1): an interval validated to hold 80% of the time on held-out launches in your genre cluster.
  • — Boxleiter cross-check (only with wishlist input): independent estimate from a different methodology — agreement is signal, disagreement is a flag.
  • — What-if levers: model-implied revenue change if you flipped a single decision (add demo, cut $5, ship in October).
  • — 5 nearest comps: real launches with actual revenues, ranked by description similarity.

Methodology: how this is calibrated.

Predict your Steam launch revenue — before you commit the marketing budget

A failed indie launch typically burns $5,000–$50,000 in marketing spend. The Steam Revenue Forecaster gives you a calibrated P10/P50/P90 revenue cone for any game in our 77K-app corpus — a realistic floor, median, and ceiling instead of a single number that’s wrong half the time.

Enter a Steam app ID (and optionally your wishlist count) and you get three converging estimates: the calibrated cone, validated to 82% empirical coverage on 1,560 held-out launches; an independent Boxleiter cross-check from your wishlist count; and five real comp launches with their actual revenue. Agreement across the three is a confidence signal; divergence is a flag to investigate.

Why a cone instead of a single number?

Two games with identical wishlist counts routinely land 5–10× apart in revenue. A single-point estimate hides that variance. A calibrated cone tells you the P10 floor to budget runway against and the P90 ceiling to treat as upside — so you can stress-test your launch under uncertainty instead of betting the studio on the median.

Forecaster vs. revenue calculator

This is the pre-launch forecaster: it takes a Steam app ID + wishlist count and runs a calibrated model. If your game is already released, the Steam Revenue Calculator estimates revenue from review count using the Boxleiter method instead. New to the method? The Boxleiter guide and the methodology page walk through how the cone is calibrated.