Terms of Service

What this is

Steam Launch Forecaster (“the service,” “we”) is a calibrated revenue-forecasting tool for indie game developers planning a Steam launch. The free /forecast endpoint returns CQR-conformalized point and interval estimates plus a Boxleiter rule-of-thumb cross-check, comp-set similar launches, and counterfactual feature-attribution panels. The paid pre-sale ($50 / 3 months) reserves you ongoing access at $19/mo or $199/year when v1.1 ships in June 2026.

Forecasts are not guarantees

This is the most important clause: a forecast is a probabilistic estimate based on properties of public games similar to yours. Calibrated coverage means the published interval contains the true outcome with frequency at-least 1−α over a reference distribution — on average, not for your particular game. Your launch outcome may fall outside the published cone, especially if your game is unlike anything in our calibration corpus. Do not treat any cone we publish as a financial guarantee, fiduciary advice, or commitment.

Pre-sale terms

• The $50 charge reserves 3 months of full access starting at v1.1 public launch (target June 2026; we’ll email if the date moves).
• If we do not ship v1.1 by 2026-12-31, you can request a full refund by emailing [email protected]. We’ll process via Stripe within 14 days of the request.
• Pre-sale customers get an email at v1.1 launch with login instructions plus instructions to extend / convert to monthly or annual.
• This is a single one-time charge. We do not auto-charge you again after the 3 months conclude; you choose to subscribe at that point or stop.

Acceptable use

• You may use the free forecast for any non-abusive purpose.
• Don’t scrape the entire dataset via automated requests — rate limits enforce this.
• Don’t resell forecasts as your own product. (You can absolutely cite forecasts in your own work with attribution.)

Liability

The service is provided “as is,” without warranty. We are not liable for marketing-budget decisions, business outcomes, or any consequential damages downstream of using the forecast. Maximum aggregate liability for any one customer is the amount that customer paid us in the preceding 12 months ($50 for pre-sale customers, $0 for free users).

Termination

We can suspend or terminate access for abuse, fraud, or chargebacks. You can stop using the service any time without notifying us — for paid pre-sale customers wanting a refund, see the pre-sale clause above.

Governing law

This agreement is governed by the laws of the United States. Any dispute will first be addressed by good-faith email negotiation; if that fails, we’ll meet you in mediation before litigation.

Changes

If we change material terms (pricing, refund policy, liability), we’ll email pre-sale customers before the change takes effect.

Questions: [email protected].