Terms of Service

What this is

Steam Launch Forecaster (“the service,” “we”) is a calibrated revenue-forecasting tool for indie game developers planning a Steam launch. The free /forecast endpoint returns calibrated revenue ranges, a Boxleiter rule-of-thumb cross-check, similar comp launches, and causal estimates of marketing-lever effects with confidence intervals. The free /attribution endpoint accepts an uploaded Steamworks “Wishlists by day” CSV and returns true per-campaign cost-per-wishlist analysis. Paid tiers are described below.

Forecasts are not guarantees

This is the most important clause: a forecast is a probabilistic estimate based on properties of public games similar to yours. Calibrated coverage means the published interval contains the true outcome with frequency at-least 1−α over a reference distribution — on average, not for your particular game. Your launch outcome may fall outside the published cone, especially if your game is unlike anything in our calibration corpus. Do not treat any cone we publish as a financial guarantee, fiduciary advice, or commitment.

Pricing tiers

• Free: single-game forecast + comp set + attribution upload (subject to per-IP rate limits).
• $299 single-launch report: one-time charge for the full launch report — calibrated cone with explainer, marketing-lever causal estimates, comp-set rationale, and Total Lift Attribution access for one game through its launch window. Refundable in full within 14 days of purchase if you have not yet uploaded any Steamworks data; 50% refundable thereafter.

Acceptable use

• You may use the free forecast for any non-abusive purpose.
• Don’t scrape the entire dataset via automated requests — rate limits enforce this.
• Don’t resell forecasts as your own product. (You can absolutely cite forecasts in your own work with attribution.)

Liability

The service is provided “as is,” without warranty. We are not liable for marketing-budget decisions, business outcomes, or any consequential damages downstream of using the forecast or attribution analysis. Maximum aggregate liability for any one customer is the amount that customer paid us in the preceding 12 months (capped at $299).

Termination

We can suspend or terminate access for abuse, fraud, or chargebacks. You can stop using the service any time without notifying us — for paying customers wanting a refund, see the pricing-tier refund policies above.

Governing law

This agreement is governed by the laws of the United States. Any dispute will first be addressed by good-faith email negotiation; if that fails, we’ll meet you in mediation before litigation.

Changes

If we change material terms (pricing, refund policy, liability), we’ll email paying customers before the change takes effect.

Questions: [email protected].