Steam Wishlist Calculator
Free · Launch-week sales range from wishlist count · No signup required
Estimate your launch-week Steam sales from your wishlist count. The calculator applies the published benchmark that 10–25% of pre-launch wishlists convert to purchases in the first week (see the wishlist conversion rate guide) — and it deliberately outputs a range, never a single number, because a point estimate from a flat multiplier is false precision.
Calculator
Estimated launch-week sales (range)
Estimated launch-week gross revenue (range)
Assumptions: 10–25% launch-week wishlist-to-purchase conversion (typical indie band per the conversion-rate guide); wishlist count measured at midnight before launch day; revenue = units × list price, gross (before Steam’s 30% cut, refunds, regional pricing, VAT). The band is a typical envelope, not the full distribution — genre, price, and wishlist source move your real rate, and your game may land outside it in either direction.
Want a calibrated cone instead of a benchmark band?
The free single-game forecast at /forecast takes a Steam app ID and runs a CQR-calibrated model trained on a 77K-app corpus. Output is a P10/P50/P90 cone with empirically-validated coverage — 84% realized on n=6,422 held-out launches for the free storefront-only model.
Free single-game forecast →Have wishlist data? The $299 launch report runs the wishlist-aware model — 81–86% realized coverage per wishlist tier — plus what-if marketing levers and Total Lift Attribution.
How this wishlist calculator works
The math is deliberately simple and fully visible:
launch-week sales ≈ wishlists × 10% to wishlists × 25%
The 10–25% band is the typical launch-week wishlist-to-purchase conversion for indie Steam launches — the full genre-by-genre table (strategy and sim at the high end, F2P-adjacent at the low end) lives in the Steam wishlist conversion rate guide. If you add a price, the unit range is multiplied by price for a gross launch-week revenue range.
Worked example (illustrative, not a real game): 10,000 wishlists at launch → roughly 1,000–2,500 launch-week sales. At a $19.99 list price, that’s roughly $20K–$50K gross in week one — before Steam’s cut and everything else that separates gross from take-home.
What moves your real conversion rate
- Wishlist source — the largest single factor: organic Steam-discovery wishlists convert 2-4× better than paid-campaign wishlists.
- Price point — under-$10 games convert best in absolute terms; $15-25 is the indie sweet spot; $30+ trades launch conversion for a longer tail.
- Trajectory shape — linear wishlist growth converts better than demo-driven spikes, which skew toward "wait for sale" deferrers.
- Region mix — CIS/SEA-heavy wishlist counts deliver fewer revenue dollars per conversion via regional pricing.
All four are covered in depth in the conversion-rate guide. And if the question is “is my wishlist count even enough to launch on?”, the how many wishlists before launch guide covers the floor / sweet spot / breakthrough tiers.
The honest caveat: this is a benchmark band, not a forecast
A flat 10–25% multiplier treats every game with the same wishlist count identically — same range for a $30 strategy game with three years of organic growth and a $10 platformer whose wishlists came from one TikTok spike. Real launches don’t work that way, which is why this page refuses to print a single number.
The rigorous version of this calculation is a wishlist-aware calibrated cone: a model that conditions on wishlist tier, genre comp set, price, and trajectory, and whose P10–P90 interval is validated against held-out history. That’s the model behind the $299 launch report — 81–86% realized coverage per wishlist tier on n=6,422 held-out launches (accuracy table). The free forecaster serves the storefront-only (blind) model at 84% realized coverage on the same corpus — no wishlist data needed.
Frequently asked questions
How many sales do Steam wishlists convert to in launch week?
Most indie Steam launches see 10-25% of pre-launch wishlists convert to purchases in the first week, with lifetime conversion of 20-40%. Strategy/sim/roguelike sit at the high end; visual novel and free-to-play-adjacent at the low end. This calculator applies that 10-25% launch-week band to your wishlist count — as a range, because a point estimate would be false precision. Full benchmarks by genre →
How accurate is a Steam wishlist calculator?
A flat conversion-rate calculator is a benchmark multiplier, not a forecast: genre, price point, wishlist source (organic vs paid), and trajectory shape each move the real rate, and individual games land outside the 10-25% band in both directions. The rigorous version is a wishlist-aware calibrated cone — the model behind the $299 launch report runs at 81-86% realized P10-P90 coverage per wishlist tier on n=6,422 held-out launches. Accuracy table →
How many wishlists do I need before launching on Steam?
Common 2026 guidance puts the sweet spot around 7,000-10,000 wishlists at launch for a meaningful indie launch, with lower counts viable in niche genres. The how many wishlists before launch guide breaks down the floor / sweet spot / breakthrough tiers.
Does this calculator estimate revenue too?
Yes, optionally: add your planned price and it multiplies the estimated launch-week unit range by price for a gross revenue range — before Steam’s 30% platform cut, refunds, regional pricing, and VAT. Leave price blank to see units only. For estimating a released game’s revenue from its review count instead, use the Steam revenue calculator (tool).
Why does this show a range instead of a single number?
Because a single number would be dishonest. The 10-25% launch-week conversion benchmark is itself a band, and real launches vary further by genre, price, and wishlist source. A range at least shows the shape of the uncertainty; a calibrated P10/P50/P90 cone with validated coverage is the rigorous version — try the free forecaster →
Built by Greg C. — senior software engineer with production ML experience in calibrated prediction. Steam Launch Forecaster trains a CQR-calibrated model on a 77K-app Steam corpus. See the methodology →